Prosper market anticipates Fed rate cut

In Prosper's second monthly lending market survey, CEO Chris Larsen says that the Prosper marketplace appears to anticipate Federal cuts in the intrest rate. Specifically he says a drop in the rates borrowers are paying on loans is close "to what was widely anticipated to be a quarter-point instead of a half-point reduction by the Fed." Here is the full text of Larsen's October announcement:

"When the Fed cuts interest rates people often expect mortgage rates to drop. However, this is rarely the case given that mortgage markets typically anticipate rather than react to moves by the Fed. On the flip side of the coin, the variable credit card and savings rate markets react sometime after the Fed moves. In fact, some variable credit cards have a 90-day window to make adjustments reflecting the rate cut. So the question is: did the Prosper marketplace anticipate or react to the Fed rate cut?

Many might assume that the Prosper marketplace would act less like the mortgage markets and more like the credit card and savings rate markets given that the latter compete with Prosper. Nevertheless, the month over month drop in average borrower rates indicates that the Prosper marketplace may have anticipated the Fed cut.

For example, in September the average borrower rates for all prime and near prime loans funded in the Prosper marketplace were 12.29% and 18.22%, respectively; down 0.37% and 0.28%, respectively, from August.

What is interesting about these percentage drops is how close they are to what was widely anticipated to be a quarter-point instead of a half-point reduction by the Fed. However, what remains to be seen is whether the market will continue to push rates down further in line with the Fed’s surprise move."

Last month Larsen said, lenders are exhibiting rational behavior and "being far more cautious about chasing higher rates offered by subprime borrowers."

Prosper CEO: lenders avoid subprime and 'flight to safety'

In Prosper's first lending market survey, CEO Chris Larsen says lenders are exhibiting rational behavior and "being far more cautious about chasing higher rates offered by subprime borrowers." This "flight to safety" is represented by a marked change in the type of loans that are currently being funded on Prosper.

Prosper has just introduced this first monthly market survey which provides "key statistics including: membership and loan volume statistics; marketplace returns; borrower rates; mix of prime, near prime and sub-prime loans; and noteworthy marketplace statistics and trends" and analysis from Prosper's CEO Chris Larsen. Here is the full text of Larsen's announcement about the current market situation for Prosper:

"The market turmoil stemming from the ongoing credit crunch, subprime mortgage meltdown and housing value slump naturally begs questions about what impact this market environment is having on the Prosper marketplace. In a nutshell, we would categorize the impact as broadly constructive for Prosper lenders and prime and near prime borrowers.

As consumers are being hit with the evaporation of introductory credit card rate offers and home equity loan options, Prosper is becoming an even more attractive financing alternative, particularly for more creditworthy borrowers.

At the same time, lenders on Prosper are exhibiting rational behavior by steering their bids toward borrowers in the higher credit categories and being far more cautious about chasing higher rates offered by subprime borrowers. Evidence of this flight to safety is seen in Prosper’s mix of funded borrowers. For example, the subprime category accounted for only 9 percent of loans funded in August 2007, a marked decrease from August 2006 and the 2007 year-to-date average of 25 percent and 14 percent, respectively.

What remains to be seen is whether lenders on Prosper will start placing less weight on homeownership as a factor in their bidding strategies. It is possible that we may begin to see evidence of this trend given that in our most recent defaulted loan sale the debt buyer placed zero value on homeownership across all credit categories – a highly unusual shift away from placing value on what is typically considered Americans’ largest asset."

Here at PLR, we have also noticed the movement of lenders away from subprime or high risk borrowers. In addition, we just wrote an article about how homeowners may actually be a greater risk than non-homeowners given the current market situation. This article was written before the recent Prosper debt sale where homeowners were not given a premium. Here are the statistics that Prosper wants to highlight for their first market survey:

August 2007 Prosper People-to-People Lending Market Survey

Membership and Loan Volume Statistics
		August 2007		August 2006		2007 Year-to-Date		Since Inception
New Members		30,623		12,825		270,866		408,633
Funded Loans		$6.6 million		$3.9 million		$56.6 million		$85.0 million
Average Loan Size		$6,733		$5,080		$6,969		$6,037
Daily Average Number of Borrower Listings		2,575		1,173		2,202		1,366

Estimated Annual Return on Prosper Select Index
		August 2007
Prosper Select Index		10.31%
Prime Select Index		9.41%
Near Prime Select Index		10.73%
Sub Prime Select Index		14.95%

Average Borrower Rates on Prosper Select Loans
		August 2007		July 2007		August 2006		2007 Year-to-Date		Since Inception
Prime Select Loans		10.15%		10.29%		11.64%		10.03%		10.14%
Near Prime Select Loans		16.83%		17.08%		16.25%		15.90%		16.06%
Sub Prime Select Loans		25.88%		22.13%		28.72%		23.30%		23.89%

Mix of Funded Borrowers
		August 2007		August 2006		2007 Year-to-Date		Since Inception
Prime		32%		26%		30%		28%
Near Prime		59%		49%		57%		54%
Sub Prime		9%		25%		14%		18%

Noteworthy

Top Five Prosper Borrower States in August 2007

1) California

2) Georgia

3) Illinois

4) Ohio

5) Florida

(PLR review note: Here's why Pennsylvania, the second most populous state, is not on the top state list.)

It's very important to note how Prosper has defined the terms used above, especially the Prosper select index. Only borrowers with zero current delinquencies, three or fewer credit inquiries, and a debt-to-income ratio of 40 percent or less are counted in the calculations. Here are the full definitions:

2007 Year-to-Date: January 1, 2007 through August 31, 2007.

Since Inception: November 1, 2005 through August 31, 2007. Prosper’s by invitation only “friends and family” launch began on November 1, 2005 and Prosper launched to the general public on February 13, 2006.

Prosper Select Index: The Prosper Select Index return is the estimated average annual return on invested principal, based on actual delinquency performance to date. The Prosper Select Index includes AA - E credit grade loans for borrowers whose credit reports at the time of application indicated zero current delinquencies, three or fewer credit inquiries, and a debt-to-income ratio of 40 percent or less. The annual return period reflects loans originated in the twelve month period ending one month prior to the observation date of August 31, 2007. Prime Select includes AA and A credit grade loans (credit scores of 720+). Near Prime Select includes B, C, D credit grade loans (credit scores between 600 and 719). Sub Prime Select includes E credit grade loans (credit scores between 560 and 599).

Average Borrower Rates: Average Borrower Rates are the weighted average borrower rates on Prosper Select Index loans. Rates shown are interest rates, not annual percentage rates.

Mix of Funded Borrowers: Prime includes AA and A credit grade loans (credit scores of 720+). Near Prime includes B, C, D credit grade loans (credit scores between 600 and 719). Sub Prime includes E and HR credit grade loans (credit scores below 600).

Just a couple of weeks ago Prosper was taken to task in the forums and and Prosper blogs for announcing that returns on Prosper beat the S&P 500. Critics said the data which showed Prosper beating the S&P 500 was carefully picked and misleading. Others argue that lenders have the same ability to carefully pick their loans. I look forward to seeing how lenders respond to this report.

All things considered, I think that this monthly data report from Prosper will be valuable. It's good to hear Chris Larsen's analysis and it gives a regular public way for Prosper to report their growth and success.

Credit Scores on Prosper - Part 1 of 2

Credit scores are the most important indicator in determining what rate you will pay when you borrow money. The worse your credit score is, the more you will have to pay in interest on your loan. Your credit score is made up of a number of components including the length of your credit history, the amount of debt that you carry, recent credit inquiries by lending institutions, and the number of late payments or defaults that you have on current or prior debt. Sometimes this score is called a FICO score because it is generated with software from Fair Isaac and Company.

There are three credit reporting agencies that produce credit scores: Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion. Each of these collect information about borrowers independently and the accuracy and quantity of information on a borrower can vary among the credit agencies. Because of differences in the data collected, the score for a given borrower can also vary among these credit agencies. Some lending institutions partner with one of these credit agencies and use them as an exclusive provider of credit scores and content, while others obtain data from all of the credit agencies when making a loan decision. Prosper exclusively uses Experian while Lending Club exclusively uses TransUnion for their credit data.

According to MyFico.com the distribution of credit scores for the general population is heavily weighted to the higher end of the spectrum with most scores falling above 700.



Prosper uses credit grades rather than displaying the raw credit scores. The following is a chart that explains that correlation.

Grade	AA	A	B	C	D	E	HR
Score	760 and up	720-759	680-719	640-679	600-639	560-599	520-559

I must say that when I came across this data I was quite surprised by this distribution. Matching the two sets of data together, we realize that E and HR borrowers combined represent only about 11% or 12% of the population (people below 520 cannot currently borrow on Prosper). Nearly half of the population falls into the AA or A credit groups.

Okay, ready for some shocking statistics? Here is the current breakdown of active loan listings on Prosper as of the writing of this listing:

Grade	AA	A	B	C	D	E	HR
Number of Listings	54	56	113	230	382	500	1308

Roughly half (49.4%) of the current loan listings are for HR borrowers, with only 2% for AA borrowers, and 2% for A borrowers. This is shocking when you consider that combined A and AA borrowers make up half of the general population while HR borrowers account for less than 10% of the general population.

One effect this has is that when lenders see an A or AA listing they think they are lending to the cream of the crop - the top 4% of borrowers. While, when lending to Bs or Cs they may be thinking, "This isn't too bad, I am still in the top 15% of loans". In terms of the number of Prosper loan listings they would be correct. However, in terms of the general population, lending to AA and A borrowers just puts you in the top half of borrowers, while Cs could put you in the bottom 25%.

This also clearly demonstrates that many borrowers are using Prosper as a lender of last resort. People who are unable to obtain credit elsewhere because of their low credit scores are flocking to Prosper in an attempt to obtain financing on their loan. Anyone with a score below 620 is considered subprime, which is the middle of the D credit grades on Prosper. With scores below that, many of the Es and most of the HRs would find it difficult to obtain a loan at any rate from traditional financial institutions.

The distribution of loan requests on Prosper suggests that Prosper is having difficulty attracting mainstream borrowers in the higher credit grades. This makes it difficult for lenders that want to lend large sums of money to borrowers in the top credit grades. These lenders are forced to spread the money out over a long time period, or aggressively bid down the rates on the small number of loan requests in the high credit grades. (See my previous article for why someone with good credit would want to borrow from Prosper.)

This is part 1 of a 2 part article about credit grades. Watch for an upcoming post in which I will describe how you can obtain a free credit report, dispute inaccuracies on your report, and monitor your credit. In part 2 I will also discuss how much it can cost you to have a poor credit score.

Edit/Clarification: In this post I compared FICO scores in the top graph to Experian's ScoreX scores used by Prosper. FICO scores run from 300-850 while ScoreX are from 330-830. There is really no one in the 830-850 range anyway, so trimming that doesn't really have an effect (same onthe bottom end of the scale). Although Experian's ScoreX scores are mathmatically scaled to match FICO scores they are produced by a different algorithm and could result in slightly different data. The overall analysis in this post should hold but the percentages may vary. Here's a short explaination from Wikipedia on the difference betwen FICO scores and Experian's ScoreX score:

For easy use, most scores are mathematically scaled so that they fall in the general range used by prominent scoring model competitors. Since the Fair Isaac Corp. provides the dominant scoring method, non-Fair Isaac method-generated scores often mimic FICO scores, (they often are derisively called "FAKO" scores).[1] Although not as widely used, these scores (e.g. TransUnion's "TransRisk", Experian's "ScoreX", and "PLUS" scores), are less expensive for borrowers to buy than is the FICO score. The business cost savings of buying and using non-FICO scores is financially tempting to some banks and credit card companies to use, as they need accurate risk assessment of millions of accounts.

Update: Part 2 of this article, which covers free credit reports, claim disputes and the importance of good credit is here.

Fed Chief estimates subprime fallout at $100,000,000,000

In comments to congress today, Federal Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke said the subprime fallout could result in as much as $100,000,000,000.00 in losses for lenders. That is a lot of zeros.

During the hearing, Ben Bernake said the "Federal Reserve is taking measures to protect borrowers." Then congressmen aggressively questioned him about whether the measures to protect the borrowers were being taken quickly enough.

The question I have is:

Why isn't anyone talking about what can be done to help the lenders?

It is, after all, the lenders that will be incurring the $100 billion dollars in losses. I know there are some predatory lenders out there and I don't have a ton of sympathy for some of them. But, I also find it hard to sympathize with borrowers who got into more debt than they could afford at terms they didn't bother to read. In the end, some borrowers will end up having to find a more affordable place to live, but a lot of lenders and investors will be left holding an empty bag.

It will be interesting to watch and see whether any of the subprime loan fallout spills over into higher defaults on subprime loans on Prosper. If so, should we be asking what we can do to help those HR borrowers that can't make the payments on those loans?